When the Data Is Right (and I Keep Ignoring It)

When the Data Is Right (and I Keep Ignoring It): Exciting FPL Reflections

I’ve been picking my Fantasy Premier League teams for a few weeks now using what I picked like to believe is a reasonable balance between data, logic, and gut feeling. Unfortunately, sometimes, instinct becomes overconfident, excitement sets in, and I convince myself of it This is when a player finally bursts into life.

Confession of the week: I wasted a transfer on Isak.

On paper, the logic isn’t completely crazy. He scored, he looked quite sharp, and I told myself that the first goal would open the floodgates. Classic FPL optimism. The kind that ignores everything you’ve learned over years of gaming and replaces it with thrills and expectations.

The problem? The data never sat right with me.

Despite the goals, the underlying numbers never really change. XG didn’t spike, engagement didn’t suddenly increase, and the minutes picture wasn’t as convincing as I would have liked. I chose to ignore it because of that felt like the right time. Not surprisingly, data wins the battle.

Worse still, Isak hasn’t really had the impact I’d hoped for, and with Ekitike now in control of the shirt and actually scoring goals, it’s getting harder to justify keeping him around. If I’m honest, if I were Arne Slot, Ekitike would be my starting choice right now. He converts chances, influences play and does what you want your striker to do.

And FPL, at its core, is a game about minutes and impact.

So of course this raises the next question: if not Isak then who?

Back to Numbers

This is where my Power BI model benefits. I track xG, xA, shots in the box, touches in the penalty area and a few other useful indicators that help separate “good FPL picks” from “players who look busy but don’t return”.

With Christmas fast approaching and the fixture list getting tighter, I thought it would be a bit of fun (and somewhat sensible) to see which players are currently performing better and worse in their xG. Not as gospel, but as context.

Over-performers often experience hot trends that can cool quickly. Underperforming players can be a trap… but they can also be an opportunity if the playing time and match schedule work out accordingly. This is where assessment still matters.

And yes, I say all this with full awareness that I will only ignoring the previous week’s data.

The Wolf Problem (and Why It Matters)

I write this after making the transfers for the week, and Wolves play Manchester United on Monday night. As a Wolves supporter, that game hurt. As an FPL manager, this is worrying.

Wolves somehow managed to make a very poor Manchester United team look competent. That tells you everything you need to know about where they are currently. They looked lost before the game even started, their confidence was low, and structurally they were next to nothing.

Which brings us neatly to Arsenal.

Wolves travel to Arsenal, Arsenal are in strong form, and this could be one of those games where things can get ugly quickly. Arsenal at home against a side lacking in confidence is the kind of game I want to attack over the festive period.

So I moved.

Move: Sob ➝ Root

Out comes Isak, in comes Akar.

The thinking is quite simple. He looks fit again, his minutes should be coming, and Arteta (or “Lego Head”, depending on your preference) wants him involved. Arsenal will dominate possession, create chances, and if Gyökeres gets serve early, this could be one of the statement games.

Is it risk free? Absolutely not.

But this seems like a good time to make a calculated decision, especially with Manchester City and Haaland facing a tough trip to Palace. The equipment was captioned as “awkward, frustrating and low-profit.”

Captain Roulette

Which brings me to the captaincy.

I’m seriously considering captaining Gyökeres or Rice this week and backing Haaland to the hilt. It’s uncomfortable, goes against the rank-and-file’s protective instincts, and can backfire spectacularly — but it’s also a time when calculated risks can pay off big.

Playing it safe over Christmas can often result in you being caught out in secret.

Looking ahead

Another big positive is the flexibility of the squad. When matchday rolls around, I will have five free transfers and one still in hand before the next deadline. That put me in a strong position heading into a rousing mess — rotations, injuries, surprises on the bench, and more.

The important lesson this week? Trust the data — but understand it too Why it says what it says. Ignoring them completely rarely ends well, but following them blindly without context is just as dangerous.